In a new publication, researchers from the NEXOGENESIS project (NTUA, CMCC & UTH) have developed and tested a new methodological framework for evaluating the impacts of climate change on water resources in rural river basins. The study, recently published in Environmental Processes, was conducted in the Platanovrisi river basin in Northern Greece and leverages state-of-the-art hydrological modeling and climate projection tools.

The study, led by Dr. I.M. Kourtis and a multidisciplinary team from Greek and European institutions, integrates the monthly GR2M hydrological model with bias-corrected and statistically downscaled climate projections from three CMIP6 global climate models (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). This robust combination allows for the assessment of future changes in rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, and streamflow up to 2050.

Key Findings:

  • Annual precipitation is projected to decline by 13–23%, while river discharge could drop by 32–47%.

  • Temperatures are expected to increase by an average of 1°C, leading to higher evapotranspiration (10–14% rise).

  • Spring and summer flows are forecasted to decrease substantially, which may compromise irrigation, hydropower production, and ecological flows.

  • The region is likely to face more frequent and severe meteorological droughts, especially under high-emission scenarios.

Importantly, the framework provides a scalable, transferable methodology for rural basins worldwide—particularly those facing data scarcity and complex hydrological regimes. It emphasizes the importance of multi-model ensembles and scenario-based planning for reducing uncertainty in long-term water management strategies.

Dr. Kourtis notes, “Our goal was to equip water managers and policy makers with a tool that is both scientifically rigorous and practically applicable for designing adaptive strategies in the face of climate change.”

This work exemplifies NEXOGENESIS’s commitment to advancing science-based, integrated approaches for managing interconnected resource systems in an era of climate uncertainty.

Read the full article here.